Sunday, March 28, 2010

There's blood in the water. . .


From the Trinidad Express story by Ria Taitt "Manning threw the cat among the pigeons, with his instruction to his party to begin the nomination process for the holding of a general election. The screening process is scheduled to begin on April 7 with the Political Leader’s San Fernando East constituency."

Kamla says bring it on.

Dookeraan's in India. . .

No doubt this will be a 1 on 1 fight that the COP has indicated and accommodation is probably best but what ever they have to do they now have to do it fast! Less haste and more speed though. The way I see it at this juncture is that Manning hasn't ACTUALLY called a date, so elections could happen at the time of 2012 for all we know. In fact he could just turn around and call local government, but as some people have said, this would be political suicide, so he's not going to do that.

But let's look at what the possibilities are, what the moves in the chess board could be?

Scenario A. Manning holds a "snap election" and the COP and UNC have some sort of loose arrangement where the UNC contest their 15 seats and COP contest against the PNM directly in the PNM strongholds. So lets say the COP wins half of the PNM's seats and the UNC the 15 that it holds (COP takes Tobago, which is HIGHLY dubious at this stage) So what happens next? Under "Panday-Robinson tactics" Kamla does NOT become PM but Dookeraan does. (Untenable for the UNC) In-fighting WILL occur, c'mon who doesn't want to be in charge in this banana republic? All fall down the UNC would "cross the floor" or something. Result: Back to the polls, COP is destroyed by the UNC and PNM and the UNC remain in opposition and the PNM gain power once again. Status Quo. Analysis: where the accommodation thing would work, the COP would NOT win that many seats this brings me to scenario B.

Scenario B. COP wins half of PNM seats, UNC retains its 15 and the PNM the rest. Now the COP becomes the 'lynch pin' in Parliament, like a check, a balance to the PNM and UNC's bickering. Voting or withholding votes as it sees fit. This is unprecedented. . . this has never happened as far as I know, and we may see the UNC or the PNM mashing it up once again. Result: Back to the polls BUT the COP remain, they split the vote since the UNC would not want to try this "accommodation thing" again, PNM wins their seats back, UNC remain with 15. Back to status Quo. Analysis: In my opinion we're getting closer to a better Government with a third untainted party in the middle, but our system cannot sustain such a scenario. It HAS to be an all out win for BOTH parties. A total route of the PNM.

Scenario C. COP and UNC create the UNCOP and fight all areas. the old UNC strongholds become question marks, the old UNC guard may not vote a "NEW" party and the COP supporters would probably not vote for Kamla in charge over Dookeran. This scenario in theory would work, but it depends entirely up to the UNC supporters to treat the COP with the respect it "deserves." and vice-versa. What needs to happen is another "internal election" with COP voters joining UNC voters to decide on a leader and a new executive, for UNCOP. Are we mature enough to do this?
Result: UNCOP will probably remain in opposition with more seats. But its hard to tell. It all depends on voter turn out for THIS scenario. Analysis: UNCOP needs at least another year to solidify, the PNM knows this that's why the snap election. Manning senses that the opposition is starting to repair its foundation, but trust remains a factor, the old guard of both parties are still hesitant. What do you do to a foe who's unbalanced? You strike the death blow.

In the end do you realise what the common denominator is? Voter turn out. The more people who vote against the PNM in ANY area puts them on the run. The figures are clear there is a voting block for the PNM no matter how many elections are called. A finite number (that's dwindling as a result of death mind you) all one needs to do is to get the non voters in EVERY area to get registered and vote the opposition. It NEARLY happened in 2007! It can happen again. Voting isn't something you just "do," its a message. Hammer that home to your friends. Put your money where your mouth is.

Get registered now!

Now stop thinking and go do something!

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