Sunday, May 16, 2010

The Home Stretch

One week. In one week's time, we vote. I have been a bit remiss in my duties. My plan was really to get soundings and publish them here, unfortunately time and carpal tunnel have made it difficult. Yes DeepThought's arthritis is back and its hard for me to type these days. I can't afford the fancy keyboards that help with alleviating wrist pains, so pain killers, Iodex and grinning through the pain is all I can do. It takes me twice as long to write now as I did before.

Oh well that said. Here's what I think.

The official results: 20 in favour of the Oppostiion, 21 in favour of the PNM. Manning going back.

Now before you all get upset (or cheer as the case may be) I will tell you why this election is going to be unlike any other election we've had before. Never in the history of our nation has blogging and sharing of information become so relevant. The Coalition was the first out of the gate to blitz the "New Media" with ads on ANY single page. Deepthought was actually remiss. . . I should have put in advertising onto this page and become an "unofficial" conduit to the People's Partnership to click to join Kamla's Facebook Fanpage. (I am not a fan, to be honest, on Facebook I mean. I have yet to put my thoughts onto there as yet) The PNM seemed to have played "catch up" to the Coaltion in EVERY way. But what they do have is the Grassroots but THAT group is shrinking rapidly as more down market citizens get access to Facebook and the internet.

This is why I have said that voter turn out is key. We shall see if the internet HAS indeed played a role in shifting the focus from an uninformed electorate voting on tribal lines, to an electorate fed numerous different ideas through simple social media that it makes them think twice about either not voting, or voting. We shall see.

I can tell you one thing. Safely. Lots of you have been reading this page. Ahhh how do I know that? Deep thought has his ways.

But back to the results. It comes down to the three marginals. San Fernando West is the seat that the Coalition has the greatest margin to lose. Dookeran will win his seat. As well as TOP winning one side of Tobago, they say East. I will not dispute that. Where things MIGHT get sticky is in Lopinot Bon/Air but I have a feeling that will go the Coalition's way.

Some have said 19-23 in favour of the Coalition. This is becasue the general feeling on the ground is that its like 1986. What happened in 1986? In 1986 the PNM was routed by the then "Coalition" of the ONR and the ULF forming the NAR. But that didn't cause the PNM to lose. What caused the PNM to only get 3 seats out of 36 was the mere fact that the PNM supporters were so angry with the choices made by the then PNM party (internally) that they just decided. "Fuck 'em, we going to send a message." I have serious doubts that this will EVER happen again my lifetime. But then again, stranger things have happened.

Some are talking about Rocky beating Rowley in Diego West. It will be close. But no. This election is a PNM internal election and the PNM WANT Rowley to take over from Manning, so in some "alternate universe" Manning loses his deposit in San Fernando East and Rowley becomes head of the PNM.

Regardless of the outcome on Monday. I do believe that we will be back in this same position in 2 years time, maybe 3. If the Coalition has its way (according to the Manifesto) the instituting of recall and referendum may mean we're going back to the polls every two years. If Manning DOES "go back" we may NEVER see elections again. lol That's also a fact.

Strange Days of Uncle "Jack" (and I am not talking about Warner)

We're down to the wire. More to come.

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