Sunday, May 23, 2010

Crowds a Government not Make

Or better yet, "Crowds an ELECTION not make" After observing both rallies on TV I can safely say that we are at status quo. The PNM will hold all their seats and the UNC will hold all their seats. Its now up to the TOP and the COP to pull off the seemingly impossible. Win all the marginals.

Here are the Marginals:

  1. Barataria/SanJuan
  2. Chaguanas East
  3. Lopinot/Bon Air West
  4. Mayaro
  5. Pointe-a-Pierre
  6. Moruga/Tableland
  7. San Fernando West
  8. St. Joseph
  9. Tobago East
  10. Tunapuna
The ones marked in red are the ones I feel will SURELY go to the COP/UNC/TOP. The Orange denotes those that can swing close. So in the end it comes down as we had said in the beginning to San Fernando West. Moruga/Tableland is also a toss-up.

But we shall have to wait and see. In the end it really depends on voter turn out. So far the special electors have gone to vote and the EBC are already reporting a higher than normal voter turn out in some constituencies. Is this a sign? We have already been told by the EBC that the list of electors is about 1 million, MORE than in 2007. If the rallies were an indicator of the upcoming election then we may see a VERY close race in favour of the Partnership.

It is inevitable. BUT the major question remains: Will the Partnership be able to hold with just 21 seats? The PNM Opposition will make ANY attempt at constitutional reform difficult. That is why Moruga and San Fernando West become so important. The People's Partnership MUST win at LEAST 25 to be safe.

Meanwhile the PNM will implode after this election. It is inevitable. Manning would have lost and Rowley looks like he will retain his seat (even though talk on the ground is that this time around its going to be close as they have declared all the Diego Martin seats as "marginals." I am not willing to go THAT far!) When he does retain his seat he and Manning will be in open warfare. (Even though you will not see it) and come the end of 2010 we may see a new leader of the opposition.

Only time will tell. Today is a day of rest and reflection.

Reflect on this. Now go vote.

1 comment:

  1. there is a lot more to this election than just marginals. another key issue in this matter is which of the two MAJOR parties (the UNC and the PNM) is able to acquire the majority of the seats they put forward candidates for. it is that more than anything that will have a major effect on who will form the government and opposition of the day, coalition or not.

    ReplyDelete

Sociable

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